The August edition of EKG’s Prediction Markets Monitor is now live, with PM data current through mid-August 2026 and OSB data through June-July 2026.
The World Cup step-up in U.S. sports prediction market activity has proven substantial. On EKG’s Handle-Analog basis, U.S. sports PM activity reached $5.6bn in Jun-26, or 30% of combined PM-OSB handle, before remaining similarly strong at $6.0bn in July. Kalshi now ranks No. 3 in both consolidated U.S. handle and handle-per-adult productivity, behind only DraftKings and FanDuel in EKG’s proprietary framework.
Competitive dynamics continue to broaden beneath the market leader. Kalshi remained the world’s largest tracked prediction market by Contract Volume for a third consecutive month, while Robinhood and Polymarket U.S. reached record volumes around the World Cup and Novig has debuted with meaningful early scale. Looking ahead, August has brought a normal post-World Cup slowdown, but U.S. football and European club soccer are now ramping, with promotional intensity already beginning to build ahead of the fall acquisition cycle.
A central focus this month is the rapid emergence of combos as a critical sports PM battleground. Combos are approaching 50% of Kalshi sports Contract Volume, while the U.S. combo segment now represents roughly 37% of total U.S. prediction market Contract Volume. Kalshi currently commands 97% share of that segment, but Polymarket U.S., Novig, Underdog, and others are increasingly building around multi-leg products—making combo depth, pricing, and liquidity an increasingly important source of competitive differentiation.
Additionally, we take a deeper look at what 2Q earnings say about the economics of prediction markets. Robinhood generated $156mm of PM revenue in 2Q26, Coinbase crossed $100mm of annualized PM revenue, and Flutter expects roughly $50mm of 2026 market-making revenue and EBITDA benefit. At the same time, there remains no consensus on the winning market structure: some operators are moving toward greater vertical integration, while others are emphasizing third-party exchanges, proprietary market-making, or multi-venue distribution.
We’re also preparing to launch the PMI Databook Dashboard, EKG’s institutional-grade prediction markets data and competitive intelligence platform. Built on daily cross-platform data, common definitions, and a unified category / sport / league taxonomy, the Databook Dashboard enables deeper operator benchmarking, ongoing market monitoring, and exportable underlying data. Selected views are featured throughout this month’s Monitor as a preview of the platform.
Other features of this month’s report:
- Market-maker channel checks and competitive intelligence
- Updated proprietary estimates of Contract Volume share by consumer-facing brand
- Updated policy outlook covering CFTC rulemaking, state taxation, Congress, and the evolving path toward potential Supreme Court review
