The October edition of EKG’s Prediction Markets Monitor is now live, with PM data current through mid-October 2026 and OSB data through late September. Many of this month’s proprietary market and competitive intelligence views are powered by our PMI Databook Dashboard, which provides daily cross-exchange benchmarking across operator share, category mix, sports, leagues, and broader market structure. Football has driven another major step-up in U.S. sports prediction market activity. EKG’s proprietary Handle-Analog rebounded to a new high in September following August’s post-World Cup lull. Meanwhile, 3Q26 sports PM Execution Volume reached $35.2bn, exceeding our base case by 8.6% and prompting an upward revision to our forecasts. Our base case now calls for $121bn in CY26 and $360bn in CY27 in U.S. sports PM Execution Volume, assuming broadly unchanged market access. Kalshi remains the dominant U.S. exchange, at ~78% of total Contract Volume, but competition is broadening in sports and combos as Polymarket U.S., DKeX, Novig, and other entrants scale. Notably, Polymarket U.S. is showing signs of a more measured acquisition push: its welcome-offer generosity has declined vs. September, alongside softer October app-download momentum. Combos are increasingly central to U.S. sports PM trading, now accounting for more than 60% of combined straight-sports and combo Contract Volume. This month’s coverage includes updated beta analysis of DKeX combo construction, revealing increasingly complex, prop-heavy builds. We also examine Kalshi’s unusual soccer concentration and what it may suggest about incremental wagering demand. On policy, a June 2027 Supreme Court decision on sports PMs now looks roughly as likely as June 2028, as the federal appellate split deepens. Meanwhile, new CFTC actions targeting incentive programs and affiliated market makers introduce potential pressure on operator economics even if sports contracts survive litigation.
