The July edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor is now live The 2026 World Cup delivered record U.S. soccer NGR, ahead of expectations and driven by strong SGP and in-play activity—with a catch. Channel checks suggest little to no benefit landed in 2Q26, while the stronger-margin knockout rounds produced a much more constructive start to 3Q. Preliminary state-reported data underline that split: June handle rose roughly 26% y/y across our select-state cohort, but player-friendly results compressed net hold to 5.0% and left NGR down 40% y/y. A central focus this month is the readthrough for 2Q26 earnings. State-reported data directionally point to muted handle growth across most public operators as bonusing growth continued to moderate, with lower hold creating an additional NGR headwind for FanDuel and DraftKings (BetMGM’s OSB results broadly tracked that signal). Because most of the World Cup’s expected revenue benefit falls in 3Q26, we expect earnings calls to emphasize current trading, record soccer activity, and post-quarter momentum more than the reported quarter itself. We also look ahead to the NFL season, where sportsbook product teams are prioritizing in-play SGP growth and more flexible parlay formats. Fanatics’ On the Clock and Caesars’ Flex Parlay are among the products to watch, reinforcing a critical OSB advantage over prediction markets: greater parlay depth and combinability. Additional topics this month include: • World Cup live-betting uptime analysis, including Hard Rock’s improvement following its Kambi Odds Feed+ integration
• Proprietary analysis showing the U.S. OSB GGR-share race tightening below DraftKings and FanDuel
• Updated UA analysis showing challenger brands accounting for more than 40% of OSB app downloads in 2026 through June
