The September edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor is now live, with data current through July nationally and August where state-reported data are available. 3Q demand looks healthier than revenue. Through August, FanDuel and DraftKings carried handle growth of +16% and +14% y/y, respectively, but weaker hold left NGR at -4% and -14%. Early September commentary points to continued sportsbook handle strength, though customer-friendly NFL results in Weeks 1 and 3 suggest hold remained a headwind heading into earnings. Prediction markets are increasingly pressuring sportsbook acquisition economics even where direct cannibalization remains limited. Affiliate checks suggest a CPA of roughly ~$200 is now achievable for a PM customer versus ~$250 for an OSB customer, narrowing the incentive gap materially and pulling affiliate and paid-media attention toward PMs. The competitive backdrop is shifting as well. DraftKings effectively pulled level with FanDuel on 3Q26 GGR share through August, while FanDuel fell to a post-COVID low before stepping up bonusing in September. With underlying U.S. OSB growth slowing, a larger share of future operator growth will increasingly need to come from won share rather than market expansion. We also examine a potentially meaningful new adjacency: based on Playtech disclosures, we estimate Hard Rock’s NASCAR-based casino-style product in Florida could be run-rating at roughly $1-$2bn annually. Multiple operators are now exploring similar racing-based products, though recent history across DFS+, sweepstakes, and prediction markets suggests regulatory adjacencies rarely scale without opposition.
