U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor – September 2026

The September edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor is now live, with data current through July nationally and August where state-reported data are available. 3Q demand looks healthier than revenue. Through August, FanDuel and DraftKings carried handle growth of +16% and +14% y/y, respectively, but weaker hold left NGR at -4% and -14%. Early September commentary points to continued sportsbook handle strength, though customer-friendly NFL results in Weeks 1 and 3 suggest hold remained a headwind heading into earnings. Prediction markets are increasingly pressuring sportsbook acquisition economics even where direct cannibalization remains limited. Affiliate checks suggest a CPA of roughly ~$200 is now achievable for a PM customer versus ~$250 for an OSB customer, narrowing the incentive gap materially and pulling affiliate and paid-media attention toward PMs. The competitive backdrop is shifting as well. DraftKings effectively pulled level with FanDuel on 3Q26 GGR share through August, while FanDuel fell to a post-COVID low before stepping up bonusing in September. With underlying U.S. OSB growth slowing, a larger share of future operator growth will increasingly need to come from won share rather than market expansion. We also examine a potentially meaningful new adjacency: based on Playtech disclosures, we estimate Hard Rock’s NASCAR-based casino-style product in Florida could be run-rating at roughly $1-$2bn annually. Multiple operators are now exploring similar racing-based products, though recent history across DFS+, sweepstakes, and prediction markets suggests regulatory adjacencies rarely scale without opposition.

Aristocrat's Lightning Link High Stakes climbs to the #1 Overall rank this month with a Theo Win Index of 55.84x, dethroning IGT's Cash Eruption, while IGT's Money Gong Empress and Money Gong Emperor both land in the Top 20 of the Slots and NEW Slots segments. IGT moves into the #1 rank by % of Total GGR at 12.8%. White Hat Studios, Light & Wonder, Aristocrat, and Inspired all gain share of Total GGR year-over-year, with White Hat Studios posting the largest increase, from 8.9% to 10.7%. Light & Wonder again leads all suppliers in % of Top Slot Themes at 11.5% with 98 themes above 1x, while Games Global tops the NEW Slots ranks with six of the Top 25, ahead of IGT's four. Other top-ranking NEW Slots this month include: #6 — 3 Blazing Chilis Hold And Win, Octoplay #9 — 333 Boom Banks 2 Power Combo, Games Global #11 — Money Stacks, AGS #18 — Starlight Jackpots Bison Rush, Greentube Game performance data is captured from 40 casino sites across Delaware, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Segment leadership belongs entirely to the Big 3 this month, as IGT, Aristocrat, and Light & Wonder hold all nine core and premium segment leads. Cabinets launched over recent months continue to build floor share. Light & Wonder leads the group, with Lightwave Solar at #1 in Portrait Upright and the Lightwave up six ranks in Premium Video Reel. Incredible Technologies' Prism Spark moves into the Portrait Upright top five, and Bluberi Gaming's Beacon Jumbo tops the core new-cabinet list. Valicy makes its first appearance, debuting at #3 in the Emerging Supplier segment with the Teton Le on a limited install base. Full segment leads, Portrait Upright and Premium Video Reel rankings, and Emerging Supplier results are in this month's report.