The March edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor is now live.
Early 2026 data point to a market increasingly defined by margin discipline. State-reported February results show handle trending negative y/y (-1%) amid synchronized promotional pullbacks (-24% where trackable), while elevated hold continues to support NGR growth (+19% y/y). The shift from growth to optimization that we flagged in our CY26 Outlook is now clearly visible in the data.
Operator y/y growth performance is beginning to diverge. DraftKings continues to hold up relatively well despite lower promotional intensity, while FanDuel shows broader softness across key KPIs against difficult comps, reinforcing the view that the long-standing execution gap within the duopoly is narrowing. At the same time, challengers such as Fanatics and bet365 continue to scale, supported by improving product. Among challengers, promotional strategies are shifting: Fanatics is cooling significantly while Hard Rock is ramping aggressively.
A central focus this month is Missouri’s OSB launch, which ranks among the most efficient in the modern era. Early results show operators converting promotional spend to handle more effectively than in comparable recent launches, reflecting a combination of pre-acquired bettors, strong early UA execution, and improved product quality.
We also highlight a developing strategic theme: the “financialization” of online gambling. DraftKings’ super app push points to a broader convergence between RMOG and retail trading, with operators increasingly focused on capturing a greater share of the consumer’s speculative wallet via adjacent products such as prediction markets and, potentially, brokerage functionality.
Additional topics this month include:
- Promo pullbacks persisting even through the Super Bowl
- BetMGM’s early-2026 re-acceleration and what it signals about competitive dynamics
- Updated operator-level benchmarking across share, hold, promo intensity, and acquisition trends through February 2026
