U.S. Sports Betting Policy Monitor – May 2025

The September edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor is now live, with data current through July nationally and August where state-reported data are available. 3Q demand looks healthier than revenue. Through August, FanDuel and DraftKings carried handle growth of +16% and +14% y/y, respectively, but weaker hold left NGR at -4% and -14%. Early September commentary points to continued sportsbook handle strength, though customer-friendly NFL results in Weeks 1 and 3 suggest hold remained a headwind heading into earnings. Prediction markets are increasingly pressuring sportsbook acquisition economics even where direct cannibalization remains limited. Affiliate checks suggest a CPA of roughly ~$200 is now achievable for a PM customer versus ~$250 for an OSB customer, narrowing the incentive gap materially and pulling affiliate and paid-media attention toward PMs. The competitive backdrop is shifting as well. DraftKings effectively pulled level with FanDuel on 3Q26 GGR share through August, while FanDuel fell to a post-COVID low before stepping up bonusing in September. With underlying U.S. OSB growth slowing, a larger share of future operator growth will increasingly need to come from won share rather than market expansion. We also examine a potentially meaningful new adjacency: based on Playtech disclosures, we estimate Hard Rock’s NASCAR-based casino-style product in Florida could be run-rating at roughly $1-$2bn annually. Multiple operators are now exploring similar racing-based products, though recent history across DFS+, sweepstakes, and prediction markets suggests regulatory adjacencies rarely scale without opposition.

This monthly report provides a digest of legislative and regulatory developments for the emerging market for regulated sports betting in the United States. New features this month include updates to quick takes on the latest sports betting policy developments in federal gambling tax policy and sports betting in Nebraska; and an analysis of a legal challenge to New York's OSB framework.

The August edition of our U.S. Online Casino Monitor is now live, with data current through July 2026. U.S. iCasino growth remains healthy but continues to moderate. Nationwide GGR increased +16% y/y in July, with T3M growth at +17% and T12M at +20%. More importantly, the mix of growth continues to shift toward slots: in Pennsylvania, July slots handle rose +13% y/y while tables fell -3%, extending a broader pattern of slots strength alongside softer tables activity. A central focus this month is what happens to sportsbook-to-iCasino cross-sell as football returns. 2Q26 earnings added support to the softness we have been tracking: FanDuel, BetMGM and Penn each cited some pressure on sportsbook-driven casino activity. At the same time, direct casino acquisition is carrying more weight—FanDuel direct casino AMPs grew 26% y/y, RSI described recent North American player growth as iCasino-led, and Penn’s standalone Hollywood Casino app reached record quarterly revenue. With the World Cup producing only a modest iCasino read-through, peak football season now provides a more meaningful test of the traditional cross-sell engine. Competitive dynamics are also getting more interesting. The FanDuel-DraftKings-BetMGM triopoly controls roughly 62% of early-3Q26 GGR, but remains below prior levels as Fanatics and Hard Rock defend recent gains. Those gains increasingly have product support: our 1H26 testing ranked Hard Rock #2 and Fanatics #4 overall, while DraftKings is beginning to show early signs of a GGR-share rebound after an extended decline. Also inside: Margin discipline holds: July bonusing rose, but remained below early/mid-2025 levels. Ohio still a long shot: a friendlier governor alone likely won’t unlock iCasino. DraftKings UA improves: 24% of standalone iCasino app downloads in 3Q26 through August. Game performance: Cash Eruption widened its July GGR-share lead over Huff N Even More Puff Grand.