EKG's newly launched Prediction Markets Monitor establishes a framework for measuring and contextualizing prediction market activity across operators and event categories, built on daily trade-level data from Kalshi, Polymarket International, Polymarket U.S., Nadex (Crypto.com), and CME.
Key findings:
- Prediction markets are growing rapidly and approaching OSB-relevant scale. In Mar-26, U.S. sports PM handle-comparable activity reached ~$2bn, representing ~11% of total est. PM-OSB handle.
- Kalshi is emerging as a scaled sports exchange, now ranking no. 4 among U.S. operators on an adjusted handle per-adult basis.
- U.S. sports PM activity is highly concentrated in non-OSB states (e.g., CA, TX), and our analysis indicates PMs are expanding the speculative wallet more than they are displacing existing sportsbook demand.
What the report includes:
- A methodology framework defining how EKG measures prediction market activity across venues, including Contract Volume, Execution Volume, Open Interest, and our PM Handle-Analog construct
- Channel check-driven takes on operator dynamics, including live betting, VIP economics, customer value, and the scramble for market-making capability
- An analysis of how short-duration Bitcoin markets are bending toward casino-like engagement mechanics
- A read on U.S. policy landscape dynamics, including the CFTC's accelerating rulemaking timeline and the legislative path for prediction market reform
- Market structure and availability data across the U.S. and globally, including state-level concentration analysis
- A competitive landscape view across pureplays, OSBs, consumer fintechs, DFS+, and pending sports exchange entrants
- EKG's Demand Substitution Model, which establishes a provisional ceiling on PM-OSB substitution by measuring Kalshi's share of combined handle across state cohorts grouped by OSB maturity and competitive depth
- EKG's CY26-27 forecast for U.S. sports prediction market activity, with base, low, and high scenarios
Report Here
