The August edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor is now live, with data current through June nationally and July where state-reported data are available. The World Cup’s earnings benefit became much more visible in July. Preliminary state-reported data show handle up 29.2% y/y, GGR up 29.0% and NGR up 24.8% across the current sample. Unlike June, stronger hold allowed elevated demand to translate much more effectively into revenue, while bonusing growth moderated. The June-July step-up remains primarily World Cup-driven rather than evidence of a broader market reacceleration, but July provides the clearest read yet on the tournament’s positive 3Q contribution. Attention now turns to the football acquisition battle. bet365 enters the season with the richest welcome offer we observed—$365 in bonus bets following $10 of qualifying wagering—while FanDuel is pairing a $350 offer with increased customer reinvestment as it looks to rebuild share. DraftKings starts from a lower $200 offer, but management said it is prepared to increase acquisition investment if the favorable economics seen in 2Q26 persist into football. The broader implication is a more expensive acquisition environment and greater pressure on customer payback periods, particularly for operators already spending heavily on paid UA. The 3Q26 earnings setup is also worth watching closely. July benefited from the World Cup, while the later NFL kickoff leaves 16 fewer regular-season games in September than usual. In a typical year, July-August accounts for roughly half of 3Q handle, so this year’s quarter is somewhat more weighted toward the stronger early months—a modest positive given the start to 3Q—but the smaller NFL slate could also make September results more sensitive to weekly hold and game outcomes. Flutter estimates the schedule shift alone will reduce 2026 revenue by $75mm and adjusted EBITDA by $50mm. We also revisit the prediction market impact on OSB following 2Q26 earnings. DraftKings and RSI continue to report no discernible sportsbook impact, while FanDuel still estimates a low-single-digit effect on handle growth. BetMGM remains the clearest outlier, with PMs still cited as its primary OSB macro headwind, while Penn expects PM operators to contribute to a football acquisition “arms race” as the category enters its first full NFL / CFB season at scale. Additional topics this month include: • OSB loyalty and product, including FanDuel’s Rewards rollout, DraftKings’ Crown Cash changes and why Fanatics’ FanCash remains best-in-class in our internal testing
• How sportsbooks are beginning to borrow selectively from prediction market UX, including percentage odds, price charts and live-product features
• Updated competitive analysis showing challenger brands accounting for more than 40% of OSB app downloads in 2026 through July, led by sustained scaling from bet365 and Fanatics
