The June edition of EKG’s Prediction Markets Monitor is now live, with PM data current through mid-June 2026 and OSB data through April-May 2026. U.S. sports prediction markets continue to scale rapidly. On EKG’s Handle-Analog basis, U.S. sports PM activity reached an estimated $2.2bn in Apr-26, representing 13% of combined PM and OSB handle, up from 11% in Mar-26. Prediction markets are increasingly becoming relevant to the broader U.S. sports wagering ecosystem. A central focus this month is the emergence of a sports-plus-crypto market structure. While sports remains the dominant volume driver, short-resolution Bitcoin markets have become the clearest source of incremental growth, with Kalshi’s Jan-26 Coinbase integration helping accelerate crypto’s share of activity. We continue to believe the next major growth chapter of PMs will involve broader gamification of financial speculation. Competitive dynamics are also beginning to shift. Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket International as the largest operator by Contract Volume, but Polymarket U.S. is scaling rapidly following its national launch, Robinhood is migrating to Rothera, DraftKings’ DKEx rollout appears imminent, and Coinbase is becoming an increasingly important Kalshi distribution partner. Collectively, these developments suggest the industry may be approaching its first major market structure transition. We also provide an updated read on the policy landscape. Recent CFTC proposals suggest most sports contracts are likely to remain available in the near term, though litigation and emerging state taxation efforts increasingly represent the most meaningful policy risks. Additional coverage includes: • New proprietary estimates of U.S. Contract Volume share by consumer-facing brand
• New proprietary U.S. OSB-PM handle and handle-per-adult leaderboards
• Pathmatics-based state targeting analysis (Kalshi) and implications for OSB demand substitution
• 2Q26 U.S. sports Execution Volume forecasts: projected vs. actual
