Prediction Markets Monitor – October 2026

The October edition of EKG’s Prediction Markets Monitor is now live, with PM data current through mid-October 2026 and OSB data through late September. Many of this month’s proprietary market and competitive intelligence views are powered by our PMI Databook Dashboard, which provides daily cross-exchange benchmarking across operator share, category mix, sports, leagues, and broader market structure. Football has driven another major step-up in U.S. sports prediction market activity. EKG’s proprietary Handle-Analog rebounded to a new high in September following August’s post-World Cup lull. Meanwhile, 3Q26 sports PM Execution Volume reached $35.2bn, exceeding our base case by 8.6% and prompting an upward revision to our forecasts. Our base case now calls for $121bn in CY26 and $360bn in CY27 in U.S. sports PM Execution Volume, assuming broadly unchanged market access. Kalshi remains the dominant U.S. exchange, at ~78% of total Contract Volume, but competition is broadening in sports and combos as Polymarket U.S., DKeX, Novig, and other entrants scale. Notably, Polymarket U.S. is showing signs of a more measured acquisition push: its welcome-offer generosity has declined vs. September, alongside softer October app-download momentum. Combos are increasingly central to U.S. sports PM trading, now accounting for more than 60% of combined straight-sports and combo Contract Volume. This month’s coverage includes updated beta analysis of DKeX combo construction, revealing increasingly complex, prop-heavy builds. We also examine Kalshi’s unusual soccer concentration and what it may suggest about incremental wagering demand. On policy, a June 2027 Supreme Court decision on sports PMs now looks roughly as likely as June 2028, as the federal appellate split deepens. Meanwhile, new CFTC actions targeting incentive programs and affiliated market makers introduce potential pressure on operator economics even if sports contracts survive litigation.

The September edition of EKG’s Prediction Markets Monitor is now live, with PM data current through late September 2026 and OSB data through July-August 2026. Many of this month’s cross-exchange data views are powered directly by our PMI Databook Dashboard, which is now live and provides daily benchmarking across operator share, category mix, sports, leagues, and broader market structure. U.S. sports prediction markets enter football season at a new level of scale and competitive intensity. EKG’s proprietary Handle-Analog reached ~$6.0bn in Jul-26, roughly one-third of combined PM-OSB handle, while sports PM Execution Volume reached $31.1bn through Sep. 20, already within ~$1.1bn of our 3Q26 base case with 10 days remaining. Competition is also broadening quickly. Polymarket U.S. has reached 12% of recent total Contract Volume, ~22% of sports CV, and moved into the September app-download lead, while DKeX, Novig and other entrants continue to scale. Our channel checks suggest the football acquisition battle is beginning to push digital UA costs materially higher for sportsbooks as well. This month we also go deeper on combos, which have now surpassed straight sports in U.S. Contract Volume. Our coverage includies channel checks on market-maker economics and new beta analysis of DKeX combo construction. And on policy, recent adverse court rulings have increased the risk of state-by-state TAM contraction, making litigation our top near-term policy risk. Also inside this month’s report: Proprietary Contract Volume estimates by consumer-facing brand Football and exchange-level competitive benchmarking Updated Handle-Analog leaderboard and handle-per-adult performance rankings DraftKings Predictions product spotlight

The August edition of EKG’s Prediction Markets Monitor is now live, with PM data current through mid-August 2026 and OSB data through June-July 2026. The World Cup step-up in U.S. sports prediction market activity has proven substantial. On EKG’s Handle-Analog basis, U.S. sports PM activity reached $5.6bn in Jun-26, or 30% of combined PM-OSB handle, before remaining similarly strong at $6.0bn in July. Kalshi now ranks No. 3 in both consolidated U.S. handle and handle-per-adult productivity, behind only DraftKings and FanDuel in EKG’s proprietary framework. Competitive dynamics continue to broaden beneath the market leader. Kalshi remained the world’s largest tracked prediction market by Contract Volume for a third consecutive month, while Robinhood and Polymarket U.S. reached record volumes around the World Cup and Novig has debuted with meaningful early scale. Looking ahead, August has brought a normal post-World Cup slowdown, but U.S. football and European club soccer are now ramping, with promotional intensity already beginning to build ahead of the fall acquisition cycle. A central focus this month is the rapid emergence of combos as a critical sports PM battleground. Combos are approaching 50% of Kalshi sports Contract Volume, while the U.S. combo segment now represents roughly 37% of total U.S. prediction market Contract Volume. Kalshi currently commands 97% share of that segment, but Polymarket U.S., Novig, Underdog, and others are increasingly building around multi-leg products—making combo depth, pricing, and liquidity an increasingly important source of competitive differentiation. Additionally, we take a deeper look at what 2Q earnings say about the economics of prediction markets. Robinhood generated $156mm of PM revenue in 2Q26, Coinbase crossed $100mm of annualized PM revenue, and Flutter expects roughly $50mm of 2026 market-making revenue and EBITDA benefit. At the same time, there remains no consensus on the winning market structure: some operators are moving toward greater vertical integration, while others are emphasizing third-party exchanges, proprietary market-making, or multi-venue distribution. We’re also preparing to launch the PMI Databook Dashboard, EKG’s institutional-grade prediction markets data and competitive intelligence platform. Built on daily cross-platform data, common definitions, and a unified category / sport / league taxonomy, the Databook Dashboard enables deeper operator benchmarking, ongoing market monitoring, and exportable underlying data. Selected views are featured throughout this month’s Monitor as a preview of the platform. Other features of this month’s report: Market-maker channel checks and competitive intelligence Updated proprietary estimates of Contract Volume share by consumer-facing brand Updated policy outlook covering CFTC rulemaking, state taxation, Congress, and the evolving path toward potential Supreme Court review