A central focus this month is December’s unusual OSB performance. State-reported data suggest Dec-25 is shaping up as the first month of national OSB handle contraction, driven by what appears to be a rare convergence of sharply reduced promotional generosity and unusually player-unfriendly betting outcomes. Together, these factors look to have materially dampened player spending, even as operator revenue benefited from historically high net hold.
We also provide a detailed DraftKings vs. FanDuel readthrough ahead of 4Q25 earnings. Our analysis suggests DraftKings’ strong quarter could reflect potential true spend share gains, with handle growth occurring despite higher margins and lower promotional intensity. FanDuel’s results, by contrast, appear more margin-led, with flat/down handle and higher bonusing a further sign that its historically strong positioning is facing increased pressure.
Prediction markets, meanwhile, remain a key thematic thread. This month saw MLS join the NHL in announcing official PM partnerships, marking another step toward institutional validation of sports prediction markets, while reinforcing that leagues are extracting tighter controls over product scope and permitted markets. We also revisit PM product evolution, with parlays emerging as a likely next inflection point for OSB operators’ PM offerings.
Also inside:
• Our Super Bowl LX handle forecasts for regulated sports betting and prediction markets
• bet365’s expansion past the national marketing threshold, with Missouri positioned as an early signal of long-term U.S. ambitions
• A framework assessing whether PrizePicks, under Allwyn, could realistically move into OSB and the tradeoffs such a pivot would entail
• Updated state-level performance, promotional intensity, and operator benchmarking across mature and newer markets
