The January edition of our U.S. Online Casino Monitor is now live, with data current through December 2025.
U.S. iCasino growth remains healthy but continues to cool at the margin. T12M iCasino GGR rose +27% y/y through Dec-25, though December growth (+22%) lagged the trailing average for a second consecutive month, reflecting tougher comps and, potentially, lower OSB player spend recycling caused by promo cutbacks and very high operator hold. Full-year CY25 U.S. iCasino GGR of ~$10.7bn, meanwhile, tracked within ~2% of our forecast, reinforcing confidence in our core market assumptions.
A central focus this month is Hard Rock Bet’s aggressive Michigan iCasino launch, which delivered ~$35mm in GGR and ~11% share in its debut month. As we flagged in December, the launch appears more than a soft test: heavy promotional investment is backing a rapidly improving product, positioning Hard Rock to compete for durable share even in a mature market.
We also introduce a first-cut Maine iCasino outlook, modeling a $231mm Year-5 GGR base case under limited access (DraftKings and Caesars only). While total market potential is meaningful, potentially steep ≥60% AGR tribal revenue-sharing requirements materially compress operator economics, making market access decisions a key variable to watch.
Also inside:
- Updated legislative landscape analysis, with expansion momentum limited and Virginia emerging as the only state with modest near-term interest
- Operator share, promo efficiency, and UA momentum deep dives across EKG’s strategic tiers
- Our latest Eilers-Fantini Online Game Performance Database spotlight, with blackjack reclaiming the top ranks and IGT’s Cash Eruption still leading by GGR share
