The February edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor is now live.
CY25 OSB GGR (+25%) closed broadly in line with our forecasts, but state-reported January data point to early 2026 softness, with handle tracking down y/y amid elevated hold and synchronized promotional pullbacks. The margin optimization era we flagged in our CY26 Outlook is increasingly visible in the numbers.
We also provide a detailed 4Q25 earnings readthrough. DraftKings delivered a standout sports quarter (double-digit handle growth and >60% NGR growth on higher net hold and sharply lower promo), consistent with the state-reported outperformance we highlighted last month. FanDuel’s results were more mixed, with softer handle and uneven generosity cadence, reinforcing the view that the long-standing execution gap between the duopoly is narrowing.
Prediction markets remain a central theme. Operator earnings commentary suggests PM cannibalization remains muted and concentrated in lower-margin cohorts. At the same time, we examine accelerating PM M&A activity, including reported U.S. interest in Betdaq’s exchange technology, as well as signs that MLB could follow the NHL and MLS in further legitimizing sports PM partnerships.
We also spotlight:
- The OSB loyalty arms race intensifying ahead of football season, as operators pivot toward retention over broad-based promo
- Hard Rock’s continued national ascent (>8% GGR share, per our estimates) and what it would take to convert regional dominance into durable scale
- Parlay GGR penetration hitting record levels (~65%), even as gross hold appears to be nearing a ceiling
- Updated operator-specific share, hold, promo, and acquisition benchmarking through January 2026
